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Road to COP30: expectations from the mid-year UN climate negotiations

As the world edges closer to the important COP30 climate summit in Brazil, attention turns to Bonn, Germany, where the 62nd sessions of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Bodies (SB62) will take place from June 16–26. While these mid-year climate meetings typically receive less attention than the high-profile COPs, they are no less critical. Bonn—the headquarters of UN Climate Change—serves as the technical engine room of climate diplomacy, where negotiators delve into the details that pave the way for meaningful outcomes at the year-end COPs.

This year, the Bonn session carries added weight. With record-breaking temperatures, intensifying climate impacts, many unresolved issues from COP29 in Baku, and new leadership from the incoming Brazilian COP30 Presidency, this meeting offers a unique opportunity to rebuild trust and make substantive progress toward a just, ambitious, and actionable outcome in Brazil.

Restoring trust in multilateral climate action

The Bonn conference convenes at a time of fragile global dynamics. Cuts to development assistance, geopolitical tensions, and shifting domestic politics have pushed climate action down the agenda in many countries.

As we mark the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, this is a time for reflection—and renewed resolve. It is critical to send a clear signal of commitment to implementation, rebuild trust in multilateralism, and pursue meaningful reforms to strengthen the climate negotiation process.

Restoring that trust—both in the process and among countries—is essential to delivering the goals of the Paris Agreement. Bonn must strengthen the negotiation process, ensure delivery on past commitments, and create space for inclusive, transparent engagement going forward.

Keeping 1.5°C alive with urgent mitigation

Bonn is expected to reemphasize the urgency of scaled-up mitigation action aligned with the 1.5°C temperature goal. The implementation of the first Global Stocktake (GST1) outcome from COP28 remains contested by some—despite its aim of guiding enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). But this should be non-negotiable.

Overshooting 1.5°C temprathure threshold, even temporarily, could significantly increase the severity and frequency of climate impacts and further limit adaptation options. For irreversible impacts—such as melting of glaciers and ice sheets, sea level rise—even a temporary overshoot has long-lasting effects. Every fraction of warming matters.

With only 22 countries—including Nepal—having submitted updated NDCs, SB62 should serve as a call call for all, in particular major emittors to urgently submit 1.5°C aligned NDCs. Similarly, the Just Transition Work Programme must evolve from dialogues to deliver concrete, equitable, and inclusive action.

Meeting the finance needs of the vulnerable

Climate finance will again be a central focus. Developing and vulnerable countries face barriers to accessing funds for climate action, especially for adaptation and loss and damage.

The spotlight is also on finalizing the roadmap for the USD 1.3 trillion finance goal by 2030, supporting the implemantation of NDC and NAP. The dialogue on aligning financial flows with climate goals—termed the 2.1C Dialogue in UNFCCC jargon—offers an opportunity to steer finance towards critical areas while discouraging investments in fossil gas.

At COP29, countries agreed to mobilize USD 300 billion annually under the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG)—far below what’s needed. Bridging this gap is essential to rebuild trust and signal real commitment to implementation.

Advancing adaptation in a warming world

As climate impacts worsen, adaptation must remain front and center. The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) urgently needs refined indicators, a robust monitoring mechanism, and better linkage with finance, reporting, and implementation frameworks.

The challenge lies in aligning global indicators with national contexts, while ensuring coherence across systems. A new adaptation finance goal may be needed to meet the growing scale of demands. The call from Least Developed Countries to triple adaptation finance is sensible. Above all, the adaptation narrative must center climate justice—recognizing that those least responsible are suffering the most.

The Bonn session will also take up modalities for the Baku Adaptation Roadmap (BAR), which outlines post COP30 pathways on adaptation. Notably, two mountain-related indicators are included in the GGA list—an important step for mountain nations like Nepal.

Nepal’s role from Sagarmatha to the negotiation table

For Nepal, the Bonn conference holds special significance. It follows the successful organization of the Sagarmatha Sambaad—a dialogue that showcased Nepal’s leadership among vulnerable mountain nations. Bonn presents an opportunity to carry that message forward and to reaffirm Nepal’s climate leadership.

The session offers Nepal a platform to take forward the messages of Sagarmatha, calling for:

  • Urgent action to limit warming to 1.5°C to protect fragile mountain ecosystems and glaciers.
  • Recognition of mountain nations across all relevant workstreams in climate negotiations.
  • Delivery on past commitments, particularly in mobilizing scaled-up and easily accessible climate finance.

·       Strengthening solidarity between mountainous and small island nations—from Sagarmatha to the seas.

The road to COP30 runs through Bonn

SB62 is more than a technical milestone. It is a test of global resolve. Will countries bring forward bold mitigation plans? Will finance finally flow at the scale required? Will multilateralism prove resilient?

For Nepal and other vulnerable countries, these are not abstract questions—they are questions of survival and of safeguarding future generations. The outcomes from Bonn must rise to the moment, driven by integrity, justice, and ambition.

Only through such collective resolve can COP30 become truly transformative—delivering on the Paris Agreement and responding to the climate emergency with the urgency it demands.

 

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